Moneyballin' -- Focus on the A's

By Peter Friberg Sports Central Columnist

In a recent article, Eric Maus derides Billy Beane and the "Moneyball" philosophy by offering the following quote instead of providing commentary or analysis: "'If I had Barry Zito, Tim Hudson, and Mark Mulder, I'd look pretty smart, too,' he says."

Now what's wrong with that statement? That statement isn't necessarily inaccurate, but it misses a ton.

I don't have a problem with Maus. In fact, I find a lot of his work to be very sound. I do, however, have to take issue with that one section.

"Moneyball," the controversial book by Michael Lewis, tells the story of Beane, General Manager of the Oakland Athletics. The author was granted a year in which he was given near free reign to go anywhere and be anywhere as he detailed how the A's continuously matched the Yankees in win totals (though, admittedly, not World Series trophies) with a only a fraction of their payroll.

The book is only 283 pages long. I read it in three short sittings. If you're a baseball fan, you owe it to yourself to read this book.

Lewis' book devotes more than a few pages to run differential. Run differential, as other performance-based analysts have pointed out, is the key to building a team. Paul DePodesta, Billy's Assistant General Manager, crunched the numbers and determined it would take 95 wins to get to the playoffs. "He then calculated how many more runs the Oakland A's would need to score than they allowed to win 95 games: 135 (Lewis, p. 124)."

Every personnel move Oakland makes is based on expected performance and how that player's offense, defense, and/or pitching affects Oakland's expected run differential.

Furthermore, since Oakland's resources are as limited as any other teams (or more so), they can't afford the very players that make the biggest positive impact on teams' run differential. Thus, as Lewis explained in his book, Oakland treats its players like stocks or commodities. They identify players who are under-utilized or under-appreciated by their own clubs and "buy low." They also take their players who are highly-valued by other teams and "sell" them -- essentially, buy low, sell high.

This offseason, when reigning the MVP, Oakland shortstop Miguel Tejada, becomes a free agent, Billy and company will likely part ways with "Miggy" because Miggy will cost too much; that is, he will cost what he is worth.

For argument's sake, let's say Tejada deserves and is able to secure a $10 million-per-year deal. That kind of contract would consume 25% of Oakland's payroll. While Miguel is an excellent player, Oakland can't afford to tie up that much of its resources on one player. Beane and his management team could fill other holes or improve other positions to get the same net impact on the A's run differential for far less than what it will cost to re-sign Tejada.

Back to Maus' friend's quote, "If I had Barry Zito, Tim Hudson, and Mark Mulder ... " The trick is to identify what you have and get what you can out them. You can't discredit Beane for his success because he has those three pitchers -- sure, you can say his scouting department deserves a huge measure of credit for identifying those three players -- but look at all the teams who didn't realize what they had:

* Los Angeles traded away Pedro Martinez who was then a middle reliever.

* Boston gave Jeff Bagwell to Houston for a washed-up closer.

* Chicago gave three top prospects, including Josh Fogg, to Pittsburgh for Todd Ritchie.

* Sammy Sosa had two previous teams before settling into the friendly confines of Wrigley Field.

* Detroit traded away John Smoltz for a reliever.

* Milwaukee acquired Richie Sexton for a song.

* Cleveland traded Brian Giles for a reliever.

(To name just a few...)

Yes, Oakland has Zito, Hudson, and Mulder. But before their contracts come up, I'll guarantee you they trade one, if not two of them away. Why? Because they know they can turn a pitcher worth $8 million a year into three or four young players who won't cost but $2 million combined who will have the same effect on Oakland's run differential.

So to Maus' friend, sure, you can have Zito, Mulder, and Hudson and look "pretty smart." But can you win at the same rate and consistency Oakland does with their payroll? When you can answer that with a "yes," then you can start deriding Billy, until then, that's "Mr. Beane" to you ...

Article courtesy of Sports Central.